NL Beast

It’s May 12, and the Florida Marlins are in first place.

That’s right, for the second week in a row, the team that just unloaded its sensational third baseman and its pitching ace is atop a division that includes the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets.

A fluke? Not at all.

This is just one of the surprising storylines that has made this start to the 2008 season one of the more interesting that I can remember. Here are the storylines, one per team, that are making baseball fans scratch their heads right now:

The Marlins are winning because of their starting pitching.

The Marlins pitching staff is nothing to write home about…yet. But the pieces are there, and starting to develop very rapidly, much faster than anyone probably would have thought. Scott Olsen looks like an ace of the future (4-1, 2.63 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.14 K/BB). Mark Hendrickson, just a “stopgap” in the rotation, is having an excellent start to the year (5-1, 3.56 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 1.43 K/BB). Andrew Miller is still young, but flashes a lot of promise, despite some inconsistency (3-2, 6.52 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 1.81 K/BB). The key to this rotation is the back end, which has been inconsistent. If Ricky Nolasco and Burke Badenhop can hold it together, then the great hitters in the Marlins order will do the rest. This is a team to be taken seriously.

The Phillies are winning without Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins.

Not much has to be said here: Howard is having an absolutely terrible start to the season (.171 BA, 7 HR, 19 RBIs, .280 OBP, .357 SLG). Rollins has been injured for much of the season. But even without the two former MVPs, the Phillies bats have prospered, with Chase Utley and Pat Burrell as the catalysts. The Phillies are first in baseball for home runs with 54, they are fourth for RBIs with 178, and sixth for slugging (.430). This is a team that has it all offensively, but must get better starting pitching in order to contend in the postseason.

The Mets are winning in spite of Jose Reyes.

The Mets are just 15th in OPS, and a great deal of that has to do with Jose Reyes. As the leadoff hitter, Reyes is the catalyst for the entire offense. If he gets on base, he disrupts the pitcher and makes it a whole lot easier for the rest of the order to do its job. But Reyes has not been good enough, and is fourth on the team in OPS (.759). He is fifth for walks (15). And he is fifteenth for Pitches/Plate Appearance (3.69). Those numbers are not good enough for a leadoff hitter (I’ve previously said that he should be moved down in the order temporarily to switch things up and get Jose’s confidence back). But despite the Reyes problem, the Mets are tied for second place. Ryan Church has been the biggest surprise so far, but look for David Wright, Carlos Beltran, and even Carlos Delgado to carry this team going forward. That phenomenal lineup (when producing), plus a rotation that should only continue to improve as the year goes forward means that the Mets should be very competative down the stretch. Of course, nothing is that simple (see: 2007 season).

Jair Jurrjens is the Braves most dominant pitcher.

On a staff that included Tim Hudson, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Mike Hampton on day one of the 2008 season, it’s almost shocking that the most dominant starting pitcher for the Braves has been Jair Jurrjens. Let’s just say that if Detroit knew that Jurrjens would be as good as he has been, they might have reconsidered dealing him for Edgar Renteria. Jurrjens leads the Braves in ERA (2.84) and strikeouts (36, 7.31/9 IP). Jair’s WHIP is 1.08, his K/BB ratio is 2.57, and opponents are hitting just .197 against him. Tim Hudson has also been very good, but Jurrjens has been the star. His arm is crucial to the Braves in Atlanta’s crumbling rotation.

The middle of the Nationals lineup is missing.

It was apparent that this year would be a rebuilding one for the Nationals. But what’s surprising is that it is the middle of the order that has not been producing. Ryan Zimmerman has recently regained his stride, but started very, very slowly (.240 BA, 5 HR, 18 RBI, .273 OBP, .383 SLG). Nick Johnson is hitting just .223 on the season. Lastings Milledge was dropped from the two-spot after flashing some promise early on, but the former Mets prospect’s bat is ice cold (.252, .322, .341). Austin Kearns probably deserves to lose his starting spot (.208, .322, .300). The Nationals have won games because of their starting pitching (John Lannan is a bright spot), but they need their bats to become energized if they look to escape from the cellar soon.

Here are the standings through today, May 12, 2008:

Florida: 23-14

New York: 19-16, 3 GB

Philadelphia: 21-18, 3 GB

Atlanta: 18-17, 4 GB

Washington: 15-23, 8.5 GB

-Jonathan Kraft