NL Beast

Note: The State of the AL will be a weekly column written every Tuesday by Alex Kellner, a fan of the Boston Red Sox. Alex also blogs at alexkellner.com where he discusses politics, technology and sports.

We have now reached the 1/5^th mark in the 2008 baseball season and so far the surprise of the year in the American League has been the Detroit Tigers’ struggles. After losing their first seven games, the Tigers have rebounded –going 14-12– but still sit in last place in the AL Central. The Tigers were predicted by many to dominate the 2008 regular season and while there is still plenty of baseball to be played (it is the first week in May after all), the team’s weaknesses have been on display for all.

The Tigers are going to score a ton (this is a technical term) of runs this year with an offense that may be one of the best of all time. However, as the Tigers learned the hard way last year, scoring runs alone does not guarantee a playoff berth. In 2007, the Tigers ranked third in runs scored behind the Yankees and the Phillies, but still finished eight games back of Cleveland for the division and six games behind the Yankees for the wildcard. Pitching and defense were the Tigers downfall as they ranked 9^th in the AL for runs allowed.

Pitching, specifically, looks to be the Tigers’ issue this year as well, as they have allowed the second most runs in the American League (only behind the horrendous Texas Rangers’ pitching staff). Team ace, Justin Verlander, has been struggling so far this year with a 6.28 ERA, which joins Nate Robertson and Kenny Rogers as starters with ERAs over six. The only positive point is rookie Armando Gallaraga who has impressed through four starts this year, with 1.88 ERA and a WHIP under one. The bullpen is equally as bad, and despite the hopes of Tiger fans, probably won’t see significant help from either Fernando Rodney or Joel Zumaya. All in all, unless the Tigers pitching steps it up and soon, they may miss the playoffs again despite possibly leading the league in runs.

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Bill James uses teams runs scored and runs allowed to come up with a team’s Pythagorean Record, or expected won-loss percentage. While not perfect, teams Pythagorean Records have become a standard in the sabermetric world for predicting won-loss records, much like everything else James has done in his career. Teams’ Pythagorean Records are determined by the formula RS²/(RS² + RA²)*. It is too early, due to small sample size, for Pythagorean Records to give a completely accurate reading, but looking at them is a good exercise in looking at how teams are doing thus far.

* where RS is runs scored and RA is Runs Against

Currently, the Tigers are expected to win 70 games, according to James’ method, which would leave them in last place in the AL Central. According to Pythagorean Records the White Sox would win 92 games, the Indians 83, the Twins 77 and the Royals 72. Now, you won’t find many people (including me) that will argue that the White Sox are going to win the AL Central. Nor will you find many that argue that the Tigers will finish in last; however, without improving their pitching the Tigers probably will not finish in first place (or in position for the wildcard).

Perhaps the next biggest surprise in the American League is the success of the Oakland Athletics (and to a lesser extent the Tampa Bay Devil Rays). The A’s have by far the best Pythagorean Record in the AL, with a predicted won-loss record of 103-59. The Rays meanwhile are expected to go 85-77. The Athletics will come back to earth, as there is no way their pitching staff stays this good or this healthy over the course of the year. The Rays on the other hand, with their overflowing youth, appear to be headed to their first winning season in franchise history and perhaps a third place finish in the AL East.

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Joe Posnanski, my new favorite sports blogger, gives us another addition of the “Banny Log”- a regular post following Brian Bannister’s starts from last week. Bannister will need to repeat his dominance from his first several starts if Kansas City doesn’t want to end up in the cellar of the AL Central again.

Top of the line closers in the AL have continued to show their dominance. Joe Nathan is having an incredible year, as has Mariano Rivera, and Jonathan Paplebon. We have also seen the emergence of Joakim Soria. K-Rod, who leads the majors in saves, may not even be one of the top five closers in the AL.

The Blue Jays are disappointing yet again this year, and it is becoming more apparent that they need to change up the coaching staff and/or the front office. The most recent screw up is benching Adam Lind, after giving him only 10 games to prove himself. Richard Griffin explains.

The Yankees are one of many teams shaking things up after the 1/5^th mark. Dropping Phil Hughes and Adam Kennedy from the rotation was clearly the right thing to do, as it appears that both weren’t quite ready to be major league starters. Some time in the minors will do them well, but the Yankees will need two of Hughes, Kennedy or Joba Chamberlain to be at best 3^rd and 4^th starters by the end of the year if they want to be in the playoffs.

The Mariners are already in trouble in the AL West. The Angels are looking to be every bit a dominant team even without John Lackey or Kelvim Escobar contributing, and the A’s are shocking the world so far. The Rangers on the other hand just stink.

-Alex Kellner